All the transatlantic “alliance” has to offer Europe is a future of economic decline, geopolitical irrelevance and permanent war

Where we too quick to celebrate the end of the pandemic? Over the past few days, a worrying spike in cases was reported across Europe and the United States. I’m not talking about Covid but TDS — Trump Derangement Syndrome. The latest outbreak was caused by a speech Trump gave at a rally in South Carolina on Sunday.

“NATO was busted until I came along”, Trump boasted. “I said, ‘Everybody’s gonna pay’. They said, ‘Well, if we don’t pay, are you still going to protect us?’. I said, ‘Absolutely not’. They couldn’t believe the answer”. Trump then told the audience that “one of the presidents of a big country” at one point asked him whether the US would still defend the country if they were invaded by Russia even if they “don’t pay”. “No, I would not protect you”, Trump recalled telling his counterpart. “In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills”.

Trump saying “I would encourage [Russia] to do whatever they want” is precisely the kind of phrase that triggers TDS, especially when considering that TDS sufferers, aside from taking anything Trump says literally, also tend to be firm believers in the thoroughly debunked “Russiagate” conspiracy theory. Hence the predictably hysterical reactions.

“Encouraging invasions of our closest allies by murderous regimes is appalling and unhinged — and it endangers American national security, global stability, and our economy at home”, the White House said in a statement. Biden himself was even more dramatic: “Trump’s admission that he intends to give Putin a green light for more war and violence, to continue his brutal assault against a free Ukraine, and to expand his aggression to the people of Poland and the Baltic States are appalling and dangerous”.

“Trump sells out our NATO allies to Putin. These are the stakes of 2024”, Hillary Clinton wrote on X. NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also lambasted Trump’s comments: “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk”, he said in a statement.

The message was clear, albeit, as one might expect, somewhat deranged: if Trump wins the elections, the US will leave NATO and the Red Army will start marching across Europe while America looks the other way. Reactions were just as hysterical on this side of the Atlantic.

Reactions were just as hysterical on this side of the Atlantic. “Reckless statements on NATO’s security and Art 5 solidarity serve only Putin’s interest”, European Council President Charles Michel said in a post on X. The general view among Europe’s establishment is that a Trump re-election would be a grave “threat” to Europe, as ECB President Christine Lagarde said last month.

Others, however, saw a silver lining to Trump’s latest outburst — and to a potential Trump win in the next US elections. Some European leaders have been talking for some time now about the need for the EU to boost its own defense capabilities — within the NATO framework — and prepare for a possible American disengagement from Europe, if not NATO itself. From their standpoint, Trump’s recent comments might be the “wake-up call” Europe desperately needs.

“If Europe does not take more effective care of its own security, if we will make Europe’s security depending solely on the good will and readiness to defend the US, sooner or later it may end in disaster”, the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.

Meanwhile, in Berlin, Norbert Röttgen, a member of the German Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, wrote on X that “Everyone should watch this video of #Trump to understand that Europe may soon have no choice but to defend itself. Anything else would be capitulation and giving up on ourselves”.

So who’s right? Would a future Trump presidency represent a threat or an opportunity for Europe? Neither, as I argue in my latest UnHerd column.