| Dear friend,The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was established by world governments in 1992, creating the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings to negotiate climate agreements. Despite recurring hopes and fanfare, the COP system has failed by any objective measure. Global CO2 emissions have surged from 22 billion metric tonnes in 1992 to 37 billion in 2024. Strikingly, more than half of humanity’s total CO2 emissions have occurred since 1992 — corresponding with the acceleration of value transfer from the periphery to empire that followed the fall of the Soviet Union. Far from slowing planetary destruction, COP has coincided with its acceleration. The past 12 months have been 1.6 degrees above pre-industrial averages — beyond the threshold where irreversible tipping points become “likely” according to established science. One such tipping point is the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which contains enough water to raise global sea levels by seven meters. This catastrophic failure spanning two generations of world leaders is no accident — it’s a feature of the system, produced by and reflected in the class divisions within and between countries. Reducing annual CO2 emissions means leaving fossil fuels in the ground — lots of them. These assets are worth tens of trillions of dollars. If they became worthless, not only would Big Oil collapse, but the banks financing them would face losses so massive they could destabilise the entire financial system. Curtailing the excess emissions destroying our planet means accelerating the reorientation of the global economic order away from the imperial culprits and towards the affected peripheries. This systemic threat prevents other sectors of capital — even those facing losses from climate disruption, crop failures, and rising seas — from effectively opposing fossil fuel and financial interests that keep reforms and funding severely limited. Take climate finance, for example. At COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, 43 wealthy nations promised $100 billion in “new and additional” annual funding by 2020 to help Global South countries address climate change. While $100 billion sounds substantial, it represents merely 0.1% of global economic output — hardly a priority by any measure. This $100 billion pales against the $242 trillion appropriated from South to North in resources between 1990 and 2015. Jason Hickel et al demonstrate in their recent paper that this drain represents over 10% of global economic output flowing unpaid from South to North annually. Rich countries failed to meet even this modest target by 2020. They claimed success in 2022, but after repurposing existing development spending as climate finance, the actual “new and additional” funding reaches only about $75 billion. The total percentage of rich country GDP spent on development finance, including climate finance, actually decreased from 0.45% in 2009 to 0.44% in 2022. These amounts fall dramatically short of Southern needs. At this year’s COP, Southern negotiators, backed by experts, demanded $1.3 trillion annually by 2035. Rich countries promised just $300 billion — far below what’s necessary. Countries of the South realise they cannot wait for Northern governments — controlled by fossil fuel and financial interests — to change course. They must find alternative paths forward for survival. One such initiative is unfolding at the Peace Palace in The Hague, where the International Court of Justice — the world’s highest court — is hearing history’s largest climate case. Led by Vanuatu and brought by Pacific islanders, the case seeks to hold wealthy nations legally accountable for ongoing climate breakdown, which particularly threatens Pacific island states. In his address to the Court, Vanuatu’s special envoy for climate change and environment, Ralph Regenvanu, placed responsibility squarely on “a handful of readily identifiable states” that produced most emissions. These emissions drive rising seas and severe disasters in Vanuatu. As Regenvanu stated, “We find ourselves on the frontlines of a crisis we did not create.” Vanuatu’s legal team, including PI Council Member Julian Aguon, argues that wealthy nations have violated international law by issuing new fossil fuel extraction licenses, subsidising the sector, and failing to provide adequate finance to Global South states in COP negotiations. The ICJ will review evidence over the next week before its judges issue an advisory opinion. Though non-binding, this ruling will serve as an authoritative reference in future climate litigation and international negotiations. Like South Africa’s ICJ case against Israel over Palestinian genocide, we see Southern countries strategically using Northern-created institutions to expand space for Southern resistance. In solidarity,The Progressive International Secretariat |
Knock nock 
Leave a comment